152 Housing Markets--Whats the Over Under?

Digg this. Click on the chart in the above titled inset in the original article to see if your home is "overvalued," "undervalued," or just right!

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The 52 Year Mortgage, OMG!

Okay. Its not for everbody but this piece from the UK is an interesting read. And since a lot of trends do begin on that side of the 'big pond' you never know if there's another twist of the screw left in the already tightened mortgage market. Wonder if my Mortgage Guru, Chris Hahn has any thoughts on this one? (see comments in sidebar)

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A House Got Sold

Our Managing Broker is a big proponent of the Sunday Open House, as am I. Tens of thousands of people visit our company website on a monthly basis and rarely a day goes by when a potential client doesn't register as a new user at ChicagoHomeEstates.com. But week in and week out its the open house we talk about at our Monday morning meetings. To use a sports metaphor, Sunday is game day. Its the one day of the week (although many of our associates host Saturday opens as well) where we are guaranteed to have face to face contact with the public. Needless to say, we strive to be our most polished and shiniest selves on these days.

Even after nearly seven years in the business, I still get up early to prepare for this three to four hour afternoon commitment: E-mails to people I've been in contact with that week reminding them where I'll be that day; Double check brochure and sign-in card counts as well as my supply of business cards; Go over all comparable properties and other open houses in the immediate area--ours as well as other brokerages'; Make sure the agents covering my other open houses (can only be one place at a time, you know) have what they need for the day; And finally, putting out my signs in strategic places at least an hour prior to the scheduled start time.

I played organized team sports from grade school all through my college years. Growing up it seemed like I was always at an afternoon practice of one sport or another while my less commited friends were off rollicking in more pleasurable activities. And later on as a Theatre major, if it wasn't practice it was rehearsal. Many days it was both. So when I prepared to join the world of the gainfully employed I was certain of one thing--I wanted a job with weekends off. I was willing to put in 50 or 60 hours a week, just not on Saturday or Sunday.

I did not become a Realtor earlier in my life for this reason alone. I knew I'd be great at it but I also knew that weekends meant 'lost forever' hours of open houses and clients in the car--no golfing, no tailgating, no pool parties. Once into my forties though, my thinking changed along with some other newly established priorities. I made the decision that I wanted to sell real estate more than I wanted two days a week off. Today I work almost everyday, often times for months in a row before a break. But when I do break I travel the world with my wife. (see sidebar, Mona,Mona,Mona!) Its a wonderful gig to be sure, this life as a Realtor.

Throughout my real estate career I've met and still meet the majority of my clients through our company's open house system. Contrary to the findings of most studies on the subject, I often times sell the actual property I'm hosting--too many to even mention in this writing. And while I'm deeply immersed in the internet during the week and lost without my PDA at anytime, its those hours I spend at the weekly open house that a) keep me connected to the business at a grass roots level--and b) keep the owners of my listings satisfied that I'm doing all I can to represent their properties. And more than a few times a year its on this final day of the week, when the rest of the free world is resting or rollicking, that the house gets sold and the real estate deal gets done.

image by community.iexplore.com

DIGG THIS! week of November 11, 2006 Vol. 2

The following real estate-centric teasers are newsworthy items that I happen upon during my readings for the week ( aworldofbloggers.blogspot.com and bestestofallblogs.blogspot.com to name a few of the 'lighter reading' genre) and post on Digg.com. The titles and descriptions are mine (thank me very much!) but the actual stories are pulled from a variety of daily and weekly news sources. Click on the Digg Story button below each feed to view the original story--and if you "dig it" then Digg it! The feedback is helpful and appreciated.

photo by x.lux.solis

Greenspan Hedges His Housing Bets

Alan Greenspan has some interesting thoughts on the current housing slowdown. Panic Bubble? nope. Correction? There you go.

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12 cents a gallon gas leads to 'car bubble?'

Enough of all this 'housing bubble' talk. According to the referenced maven in the article, that bubble will soon go the way of the almost all but forgotten 'dot.com bubble.' Apparently cars are as good as gold in Citgo's homeland.

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Rank Your Income

Growing up in a typical middle class neighborhood in the 1960's allows for a host of lifetime psychological imprints. Imagine the 1988 television show 'The Wonder Years' and you have now instantly entered my life as a kid. It was a little disturbing the first time I watched the program because it was so right on the mark--the ranch style house, the awkward best friend, the school and even the girl. I felt like someone snuck into my past, stole my idea, and ran with it.

It was the adult characters though that really caught my attention, specifically the father. I was an adult myself in 1988 with a child in elementary school--and what did she think of me as a provider? Did she feel I was Honorable? Hard Working? Successful? The father character in the show was most certainly the first two but was he Successful? Financially speaking, no he wasn't. He lived in a ranch style house for crissakes--purchased for $30,000 at the most. (I saw one the other day just like it for $425,000 but that's another story.)

When I was eleven years old a new kid moved in up the street. They bought the second to last house in the next neighborhood over which everybody understood was better in just about every way--bigger houses, nicer trees, nicer cars parked in the driveway, etc. It was clearly a notch above where my family lived and the only reason one wouldn't buy in that neighborhood was household economics. Same street mind you, but a different world entirely when the reality of social status first hits you.

"How much does your dad make a year?" the new kid asked me one day. I'll never forget the moment. Its been almost forty years and it still crosses my mind.

"I don't know." And I didn't. I had no earthly idea. We never talked about things like that in our house.

"My dad makes $30,000 a year," he said.

That put it in perspective for me pretty quickly. The new kid's house had expensive looking furniture and big televisions. They had a refrigerator that put ice in your glass and it was filled with lots of Cokes and good food--their pantry, too. His dad had a new Mercury and his mom had a convertible, and she was real pretty for a mom. I wasn't sure of much at that moment but I was definitely sure of one thing--my dad didn't make $30,000.

"Wow," I probably said. I don't remember. I do remember what he said next.

"Your dad probably makes less than $20,000," he said. I wasn't sure. That still seemed a little high to me, all things equal.

The events that followed that otherwise mundane exchange of words between children are also unforgettable to me. Back at home the question had no sooner left my mouth when I instantly realized the enormous weight and complexity of the issue. I crossed an invisible line in our household that no one had ever bothered to tell me about. I should have known better.

I should really have known better than to even mention my earlier 'income' exchange with the new kid lest I repeat the conversation word for word several times into the night, nearly in tears--the latter coming only after repeated and intense interrogation from both parents. It was their version of 'good cop/ bad cop' only without the good cop portion. Since that day in 1967 I've been acutely aware of the 'annual income' subject. I respect its intimate nature and understand that it is but only one way of defining a person's success. As a Realtor I need to be especially sensitive to this as I deal with many clients spanning many income levels. Still, I'm always mentally categorizing and comparing and to be sure, I'm quickly drawn to articles on the subject.

If you click on my sidebar under Other Links you'll find a new Rank Your Income Calculator I just linked from Kiplinger.com. For those of you (us) that still have a little bit of the 'new kid's' urge to compare, it's another fun tool to play with.

picture by sue macartney

What's It Gonna Take?

"I love it but I'm not in love with it. Actually, I don't even love it. Let's just say I'm in like with it and leave it at that." Or, "My client?... My client was underwhelmed." And finally there's my all time favorite, "What does my client think of the place? Did I fax you an offer? I didn't? Hmmm...I guess that's what my client thinks of the place." Those words actually once came out of my mouth before I could grab them back! So much for the feedback request form.

More so than ever the behavior of listing agents can best be described as (and this is a term my Broker coined that you won't find in any real estate glossary) "panting." It seems lately that an hour doesn't even pass before the showing agent is calling on the cell phone wanting "feedback." And then there's the whole new and improved agent targeted incentive based initiative (see GMABreak article below) that seems to be popping up everywhere in the marketplace. I saw one the other day that offered the buyer's agent a 2006 Mini-Cooper if multiple contracts were presented and accepted on a proposed new Condo project.

It's fun to listen to the brand new agents--who are fortunate enough to have buyers in their cars--respond to these frantic requests from the apparently less fortunate listers. I had to pull one of them off to the side the other day to explain that what they are really asking is, 'What's it gonna take to get a deal done? What do we have to change? What can we do to make this happen? They just want something to take back to the seller. Often times they are just using your "feedback" to posture their client for a price reduction, taking on the role of the messenger--you know, the one that isn't supposed to be killed in Shakespearean plays but more often than not, still gets the dagger in the end.'

The following "finger wagging," as an associate of mine calls it, is for my professional peers:

Panting. It falls into one of those "hard to explain but I know it when I hear it" categories. It's not good for our image. Let's just assume for a moment that the volume of business (offers and closed transactions) has been reduced across the board in your market. (although I hear this isn't the case in places like Seattle! ) This is the very time when agent credibility becomes vital. If traffic is slow show some dignity. If someone shows interest in a listing, say what you need to say during the showing and let them digest it. And finally if--and only if--the buyer shows visible signs of contractual commitment and your property is in the running with more than a handful of others, then ask the only question you really need the answer to..."What's it gonna take to make this deal happen?" Just remember to wear a smart, professional dagger proof outfit and sensible running shoes when you bring your client the news-- just in case its not so good.

picture courtesy of bcu theatre

DIGG THIS! week of November 4, 2006 Vol. 1

The following real estate-centric teasers are newsworthy items that I happen upon during my readings for the week and post on Digg.com. The titles and descriptions are mine (thank me very much!) but the actual stories are pulled from a variety of daily and weekly news sources. Click on the Digg Story button below each feed to view the original story--and if you "dig it" then Digg it! The feedback is helpful and appreciated.

photo by x.lux.solis

The Side Effects of Housing Sweeteners? GMABreak!

Apparently, all the seller incentives that have been provided as of late to "sweeten" a real estate deal are not too healthy for appraised values. I understand all the hype about smoking in public and restaurants banning transfats from their menus but unhealthy closing cost reimbursements? I guess no better place for gluttony than a housing glut!

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Living With The Departed

The real estate market is tough in a lot of places but apparently there's no bubble in
Manila.

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Helpful House Selling Tips or just more blah,blah,blah?

Okay all you house sellers, lets get ready for Plan C...the real estate equivalent to the
'Hail Mary' pass into the end zone with no time on the clock...

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Buyer's Market? Only If You're Actually Buying!

All the talk of real estate bubbles--inflated, deflated, nonexistent can make your head spin if you happen to actually be in the market for a home. Remember, its only a buyer's
market if you're actually buying...

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Google Your Mom

I was visiting with my folks last weekend when I casually mentioned that I had recently Googled them on the internet. They had no idea what I was talking about. The more I tried to explain, the more glazed over their eyes became. They were born in the 1920's and although they do own a computer it's mostly used as a place to display PostIt notes for doctors appointments and grocery lists. The PostIt note--now thats an invention. I should also mention that they own a cell phone, too--the back of which has all their important numbers scotch taped to it. They may very well have never used it.

I bring this up because until a few years ago I wasn't too far ahead of them, technology-wise. I have a formal writing backgound of sorts, so word processing was my main reason for even owning a computer; that and sending and checking e-mails-- most of which were insignificant to my business. My wife bought me a laptop and made it wireless just so I could go into another room, I'm sure.

Today my business depends on technology. I visit the Grow-a-Brain website whenever I have a few free browsing minutes to spare. I posted three articles on Digg this week alone: You're So Dirty Mr Congressman, Buyers Market? Only If You're Actually Buying!, and just to be in the spirit of things, Top 10 Haunted Cribs In America. I just write the titles and a catchy intro for each--the actual articles are hyperlinked from another cache of sources I'm linked to (Bloglines) then posted on a site a couple zillion people a day look at if even for a fleeting moment. But Google likes this and as a result, makes me more important in some obscure technical category I couldn't begin to explain.

My Treo 700 PDA and I have a friendship akin to a pet owner and his master. (And sometimes yes, the tail does indeed wag the dog!) I often find myself struggling with my assumed Alpha role in this particular relationship. When the darn thing refuses to obey or becomes tempermental, I'm instantly rendered helpless or at the very least, needy. OMG.

I need to be in constant contact with my business and have 24 hour access to my e-mails and internet activity. I need to know immediately when I'm pinged. I have to be prepared to ping(Technorati) or respond to new Haloscan comments in quick fashion. I try to refrain myself from stalking the Statcounter numbers but the web moves at such a frantic pace that both information and consumer curiosity need to be handled at once lest they become stale and dissolve forever into invisible hyperspace particles or at the very least, something technologically equivalent to nothing.

Its ironic that something as seemingly cold and impersonal as raw imformational data entered on a search engine from a relocation buyer 2,000 miles away can lead to something as warm and satisfying as a committed agent/client relationship. But it does. My potential clients today know much more about me from the initial contact than anyone I ever cold called on the phone, farmed by direct mail or even met in person at an open house.

With a few simple keystrokes anyone can investigate my professional background and even see what I look like... Put quotation marks around my name and they can take an even closer look. I instruct strangers and open house visitors these days to Google me as I hand them my business card. The internet is always streaming and expanding so on some level--on many levels!-- I'm always open for business.

Oh, and by the way, Google had one mention of my parents. It was the amount of money they contributed to their parish in 2005. Good thing my wife nudged me under the table and changed the subject to the safest of all subjects--the weather. Now that put a sparkle in the old man's eyes.

Million Dollar Boo Boo?

What was once so so hot is apparently now just not. The Bravo! Channel's newest reality baby, 'Million Dollar Listing' may be only be crawling into a second season--with a little luck. The west coast market has sputtered to an even slower crawl (even with the likes of Downtown Scotty Brown!) since the original concept was developed earlier in the season. Its probably just a burp in the market but The Trib picked up the following story from the NYT News Wire, nonetheless.

Can Real Estate Shows Survive Housing Slump?

And I have to say...they did make it look a little too easy to make a hundred grand a pop on a weekly basis. Hard times in Malibu?
Can't say for sure but Chicago's hanging tough.

Stay Ahead Of The Curve My Friends

I read, or at least peruse on a daily basis, most relevant published articles concerning Chicago Real Estate--both the positive and the not so rosy. I subscribe to a dozen or so RSS feeds that are Real Estate centered and pull from the best independant and syndicated articles in the media. The Nakedrepublic.com is by anyone's measure one of the more pessimistic reporters of Real Estate trends but occasionally even they can't help but let a little bit of sunshine sneak through the crack beneath the door. They have published my postings in the past so I refer back to them on occasion if for no other reason than to protest.

Anyway, today's article-- pulled from an earlier Chicago Tribune article-- points out the usual market indicators (sales down from last year, etc) but definitely leaves our present housing scenario open to interpretation. You have to look closely for the good news but its definitely there--albeit between the lines but I can see it pretty clearly. Take a look for yourself.

Note a few of the comments in the referenced article: a) "Chicago-area condo sales were off 18.7 percent in September, though the median price was up 2.5 percent compared with the year earlier.... The median for a single-family home remained steady in the nine-county area declinlng $1,000 from last year’s median..." (18.7% off is another way to say 91.3% of, the way I look at it. And $1,000 either way on a median price of around $300,000 is insignificant)

And b)

“The sellers in Chicago are very stubborn,” said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. “They’re not bringing their prices down....”


Davids right. We're like the Chicago Bears Defense! We don't collapse and give in because its the latest word on the street. Negotiate? Three yards and a cloud of dust, as they say but sure--by all means. Let the games begin.

But give it away?...Slash our prices?...Roll over or take a dive? I don't think so. The Real Estate market (like all financial markets) does not stay put for long or move in a straight line in any direction for that matter. There's always a little bit of curve and I like to stay just in front of it. I don't immediately default to a price reduction when a property isnt moving nor does my Managing Broker. Its just the way I was shown the business.

Oh, and p.s....I came across this by ChitownLiving via Outside.InRSS
As I've been saying for some time now, as long as there's a higher and better use for a piece of land Development is sure to follow. And its not just here...check out what Ardell has to say in Seattle. Its called progress people!

We Love Our 'Hoods

More so than in any place I've lived--and I've lived in a lot of places (Philadelphia, Charlotte, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Washington D.C., Richmond, and even Slippery Rock!), Chicagoans are the most adamant when it comes to the subject of neighborhoods.
The Chicagoist recently ran this piece:

So Where You Living Now?

pretty true...

Oh yeah, and for an added treat click here for some local humor courtesy of Sean Parnell.

picture courtesy bobmeyers.com